JPRS ID: 10008 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FUR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/ 1000~ 23 September 1981 _ Sub-Saharan Africa Re ort p FOUO No. 741 FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 NOTE JPRS publi.:.acions contain information primari~y from foreign newspapers, periodicais and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, aad material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text) or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in contpxt. Other unattributed parenthetical notes with in the body of an item originate with the source. Times within items are as givsn by source. The contents of this publ.ieation in no way represent the poli- cies, views or at~itudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLiCATiON BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE Oi~iLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL U5E ONLY JPRS L/10008 23 September 1981 SU~-SAHARAN AFRICA REPORT FOUO No. 741 CONTENTS INTER-AF~.ICAN AFFAIRS OAU 5aid To Be Showing Its Muscle (NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 1 'Infrastructural Problems~ Hamper F`ree i~ovEment of Persons (Mbalia Wangai, Aluem Izeze~ NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 3 Africans Feel Dominated by Alien Religic~s 5 (Matthews N3ovi; NEW AFRICI~..N, Aug 81) Rene Dumont on 'Strangulation of Africa' (Rene Dumon Inter~-iew; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 7 Arming of Continent Examined 11 (Nana Humasi; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) Rural Areas Seen as Key to Greater Affluence (Jimoh Omo-Fadaka; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 16 , EEC Policy Review Termed Threat to Sugar Growers (Steve Schifferes; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 18 Brief s 20 Hard Decisions Face Africans 20 Abidjan-Niger Railway Expansion ' ANGOZA Brief s 21 UNITA Cormnunique 21 Protest Against MPLA-P***** Statement 21 General Transport Investments 22 Oil Production Figures _ a_ [III - NE & A- 120 FOUO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FUR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - CENTR.AL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ~ Details of Dnergency Plan for Economic Recovery (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 31 Jul 81) ~3 Bri ef s Promot:~ons of Officers 27 CHAD Restoration of Confidence Must Precede Economic Recovery (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 31 Ju1 81) 28 Brief s UNDP F`inancing Agreement 31 C ONGO Briefs Lumber Exhibition 32 PRC Agreement 32 GABON ~ Progress Report on Transgabonese Railroad (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 21 Aug 81) 33 GUINEA-BISSAU . Present I,eadership's Reportedly Suspect Motives Questioned (Augusta Conchiglia; AFRIQUE-ASIE, 17-30 Aug 81) 35 KENYA ~'ress Freedom Seen as Set for Tumble (Kazungu Katana; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 39 LIBERIA DOE Reported 'Facing Up to Reality~ (Alan Rake; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 41 - MADAGASCAR Briefs - Rice Shortfall ~3 MOZAMBIQUE Move To Curb I7iseases From Unsuitable Powdered Milk (Brian M. Murphy; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) 44 -b- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL~' APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050058-9 NUR UhMIC1AL USE ONLY Situation Leading to Recent Beira Cholera Outbreak Reviewed 45 (Paul Fauvet; NEW AFRICAN, Aug 81) Improvement of Maputo Matola Port Facilities Planned ~7 (MARCHFS TROPICAUX ET MEDITE RftANEENS, 21 Aug 81) . Br~efs 49 Steel Production Ship Maintenance ~9 SENEGAL Results of SGBS Activity in 1980 Noted 50 (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 7 Aug 81) Brief s 52 Loans to SOFISEDIT FRG Aid 52 SOUTH AFRICA Brief s 53 Railway Cars Bids Austrian Tractors for Transket � 53 TAN ZANI A Nation Said To Be Undergoin~ Critical Economic Phase 54 (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEFNS, 1!~ Aug 81) TOGO Brief s Regulations on Export Cargoes UPPER VOI,TA Brief s 61 Poura Gold Mine Projects ZAIRE - President Calls for Expanded Agricultural Production (MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS, 7 Aug 81) 62 Brief s 64 Electric Power Production Increase . 64 Fuel Price Increase 64 Zairetain Expansion 65 Strike Statistics ZAMBIA New Crop Producer Prices Should Help `"o Revitalize Econorr~y (Arthur Gottschalk; NEW AFRICl~d, Aug 81) 66 -c- ~OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS _ OAU SAID TO BE SHOWING ITS MUSCLE London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 81 p 90 [Article: "oau: At Zast That 'Paper Tiger' is Showing It Has Teeth"] [TextJ THE ORGANISATION of African Unity world that whitea in South Africa not (OAU) has often been criticised for its only have a God-endorsed just cauae but lack of "teeth". It passes thunderous also that it is in the self-interest of others resolutions, the critics say, yet is impo- to support them, not only in the self- tent to implement them. The critics go on interest of the Americans and Europeans to stress that when it comes to inter- but also black Africans themselves. The African K~rangles, the OAU's good inten- African ia no longer expected simply to tions mostly flounder on the iron rule of bow~to a historical necessity. He must be national sovereignty and non- won over for a crusade against Rusaia interference in the internal affairs of and communism, according to South ' member-countries. Africa and the Weat. At 18 years of age, the OAU may be If the resolutions adopted in Nairobi on deemed to have come of age - in June in these matters served no other purpoae Nairobi. The teeth may not yet be fully than to demonatrate that the Africana grown, but they are there for all to aee. will not be fooled by such manouevres, The usual charge againat the OAU - they will have been worthwhile. being a paper tiger - has~ in fact never Attempts to create a"fake" independence seemed convincing, not even in earlier of Namibia have been condemried. So has days. One is reminded of the celebrated "the emerging unholy alliance between question posed by Joseph V. Stalin in the pretoria and Washington:' France and last ~;uropean war: "How many divisions Britain, too, were strictured - for vetoing has the Pope?" People obsessed with the resolution ofthe UN Security Council physical power tend to undere~timate which had called for mandatory sanc- moral influence, which is a force that not tions against South Africa. only impressea the do-gooders but is also The quick and angry reaction in the pertinent in terms of realpolitik. White House to the African consensus voiced in Nairobi, and clumsy attempts to ~ast-ditch stand find excuses for American policies in Southern Africa, were proof that the The OAU's moral influence certainly OAU had driven its point home. has made its mark on the political map of Moreover, the OAU called for unilat- the continent over the past 18 years: 95 eral sanctions against Pretoria, includ- per cent of Africa is now free. We are ing a call on all member-states to cease witnessing the last-ditch resistance in granting landing rights to aircraft flying Namibia and South Africa. But because to and from South Africa. African coun- this is taking place in a particularly tries ignoring such calls may find them- importartt, strategic and wealthy region selves in an embarrassing position at the racialism and imperialiam cannot be next OAU meetin~. expected to give in easily. Indeed, more and more African coun- Efforta are being made to persuade the tries have come to the view that they ' cannot afford to ignore the opinions of the 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY OAU when these are expresaed force- discusaion of their bilateral problems. fully. This was illuetrated to some extent Somalia's assurance of having no claims by the uolte Face of King Hassan on the on Kenya's noith-eastern province was Western Sahara issue. Not only that, the received extremely well by the Kenyans king decided to grace the summit person- and was front-page splash in the Nairobi ally, which he had not done for many newspapers next day. yeara, and chose the occasion to publicly The resolution on Chad required con- endorse the African call for a referendum siderable ment~l acrobatics. The inten- in the region. An implementation com- tion was to try and get the Libyans out of mittee composed ofGuinea, Kenya, Mali, the country ag soon as poasible, replacing Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Sudan and Tan- chem with an OAU force without offend- zania will now seek to ensure that the ing Colonel Gadaffi. people of Western Sahara can give their The Libyana, who had heen under a verdict, under the protection of a peace- berrage of ***** from the local media keeping force set up by the OAU and throughout the conference, had other UNO. reasons to be delighted with the outcome Entertaining as well as informative of the 18th OAU summit. Only four - was the physical contest between Siad countries objected to the proposal to hold Barre of Somalia and Mengistu of the next gathering in Tripoli: Ghana, Ethiopia. While the outcome of the ~ght Gabon, Egypt and Sudan. was a foregone conclusion, had it been There was much that was mature, allowed to continue- bearing in mind the stateamanlike and. constructive at this advanced age of one and youthful agility memorable conference. The OAU of the other- this in no way reflected ~she accepted a~,roposal for a human and state of the ganne over the Ogaden. people's rights convention for Africa and moved closer io creating a kind of ~+0~~ t8~LS security council to deai with inter- African conflicts. But the moat important event relating In November, it was resolved, a com- to the Horn of Africa conflict took place mittee will meet to provide a vitally F~ outside the Kenyatta Conference Centre, important platform for dialogue between as the Presidents of Somalia and Kenya oil-rich Arab states and the needy met for what appeared to be a cordial countries of Black Africa~ . COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS 'INFRASTRUCTURAL PROBLEMS' HAMPER FREE MOVEMENT OF PERSONS London NEW AF'RICAN in Ehglish No 167, Aug 81 p 29] [Article by Nmalia Wangai and Aluem Izeze] [Textl Serious infrastructural problems still hamper the implementation of the ~ free movement of persons within the zone, as ratified by nine of the 16 member- states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWA3). Heads of the community heard the no-progreas report from ECOWAS secretary-general Diaby Ouatarra at the recent meeting af the Community in Freetown. ' The Community had set itself a 1989 target to transform West Africa into one free trade zone with more than 170-million consumers. This projection is hampered by protectionist scepticism by the six member-states yet to sign the agreement, and Nigeria and Ivory Goast whose economies compete for the same market. Hesitation in implementing the free movement arrangement have also been delayed by recent disturbing incidents which included 46 Ghanaiana suffocating to death in a ' gendarmerie cell in the Ivory Coast, the elleged molestation of Nigerian nationals in Liberia, the December 1980 riots in Kano which left ~,000 people dead, and ser- ious border disputes between Nigeria and Benin. When Liberia asked the Freetown summit for exemption from ratifying the free move- ment clause for security reasons, Nigeria charged it was part of the continuinq ~ harassment of the Nigerian business community in Liberia, and a move to restrict Nigerian immigration in the country. This tension has cast doubts on the ambitiousness of the three-stage programme which allows community citizens to enter any member-country without visas, provid- ~ing travel docur::ents are in order. The second stage guarantees rights of residence for five years before which the third stage of permanent residence and the estab- lishment of a business or livelihood become a right. Several countries have so far experienced a high influx of job seekers, to the point of concern in some cases. The summit broke new ground in its agreement to establiGh a framework for a de- fence association, a step encouraqed by some successes in the Community's 1981-1986 programmes in agriculture, industry, transport, telecommunication, and the proposed 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400050058-9 i~Y1R OFFI('IA1. ['tiF. (1N1 postal union. Food production, livestock development, fishing, and forestry were reported to be working well within the medium-term proqramme. A$35-million telecommunication project was expectied off the ground by the middle of the second half of this year, with the additional $69-million pledge from donor sources which also met in Freetown. The heads of state were told ~that the hiqhway links between Dakar and Njamena, Lagos and Nouachott were within their 1986 deadline while the raiYway to link Upper Volta, Niger, Togo, and Mali would caane off as planned. The summit ended with the adoptio~ of a short term "survival" energy proqramme whicla placed high priority in low cost joint efforts by members. A three-phase plan will study the energy potentials of West African countries while improving the conventional forms of energy. The third phase wi1T be an in- depth assessment and planning of the survival projects in individual member-states. COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 . . ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400050058-9 FOR OFF'ICIAI. USE aNLY INTER P?FRICAN AFFAIRS p,FRICANS FF~E:L DOMINATED BY ALIEN RELIGIONS London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 21 p 86 [Article by Matthews Ndovi: "Scrap That Communion Bread and Bring On Fufu and Palm Wine"] [Text] LIBERATION 1'HEOI~OGY has come to to adhere to the traditional bread and Black Africa. Its aim: to ezamine the Western wine when theee commodities Western interpretation of the Bible. are not univereally available in Africa. Many Afric~ns are concerned that the Paetor Illunga Mutaka, of the Method- Western approach ie drawing Africans ist church in Zaire, said hia church had away fro~? Chrietiaaity. examined the Weetern interpretation of To remedy the eituation~ public multi- the Lord's 3upper and "we decided to take denominational opinion is being aought any of our staple crope - rice, maize, at African regional meetinga. One was banana or caesave, whichever ia avail- held by the conference and reaearch able:' department of the Mindolo Ecumenical The A&ican Theological Conference is Foundation in Kitwe, Zambia, recently. aleo working on a new interpretation of Under the label "The Lord'e Supper. the Bible to auit African culture. One Westera Importation or African 3acra- aspect being e~camined ie the exclueion of ment?" the confer~ce ezamined ia an Afi'ican PolYBamista from the church. ec~umenical eetting different beliefe and , Liberation theology has it that polygamy . practiceeconcerningtheLord's$upper.It ia universal in African culture and there . also focuseed on the Lord's Supper ,ae an ie nothing einful about it. Acxording to essential' element in emerging A&ican ~ the Bible, even the "choeen family of liturgical practices. God" included polygamista such as Roman Catholic, Proteetant and Mus- Abraham, David and 9olomon. lim leadere were invited, and intereeted Dr M'Paseou explaine: "Nowhere in the outsiders. The Rev Denie M'Pessou, who Bible doea God forbid poly~amy. Christ- convened the conference, eaid: "The ianity today rejecte polygamy becauee buraing iseue ie. are we right in Africa to the people who first interpreted the Bible stick to the Weetern practice of bread and were oppoaed to it as they themaelves wine for the sacrament of holy commun- pracr:ieed monogamy. ion? Can't we have our '~eahima' with "Many other aepecta of Bible interpre- something that ie our staple food?" tation have created direct conflict bet- ween the Church and African culture, keeping millions of Africans out of the ~0~~~ Church. To accommodate these milliona, In Weet Africa the aubject hea already Africans must reinterpret the Bible to been widely diecussed. Moet Africaas, it euit their beliefa, customs and cultural seeme, feel they should change to fufu biae:' (pounded caesava, a root vegetable) and Pastor Ronald Diggs, of Liberiu, criti- palm wine for their Holy Communion cisee Westem church .~bes in tropical sacrament. They argua it ia unreasonable climatee. He seye: "You can imagine how 5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI,Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 ~~t nr~r~~~~,~t. ~ r~F~ nN~.v . it feels in thoee full-length robea in our proetitution and abortion to end what he heat in Liberia. When I firet startecl termed the "***** of women by men." dresaing aianply juet like anyone else, my The Archbiehop, encouraging ***** edu- biehop was r,ot happy. But everyone is cation in the Church and condemning the now used to my simple attire and i feel uee of contraceptives, aeked the World quite comfortable:' Union of Catholic Women why they did For church mueic, many African coun� not form orgenieed aerviccs to protect tries have changed to local instrumente. ***** girls from ***** abuae. A Kenyan priest said at a recent church , music seminar: "It ia madneea to think M~~~ that the piano or organ ia more Chrietian than the African drum." He added: "Now we hear that in Conservative African Chrietiana are England parenta may officially present not quietly standing by. Oppoeition has the case of their 13-year-old daughters come from leaders of both the Roman for the uee of contraceptives. Is the Catholic and Anglican churchee. responsibility for morality left to tableta, On Communion, a Roman Catholic contraceptive pilla and other devicea?�' prieat had thie to say: "To think of using New atatiatice ahow that more Africa~ta nahinca and palm wine or mkhoyo (local aouth of the Sahara accept Chriat then sweet beer) ie changing the sacrament of reject Him. Nevertheleas, the number of Holy Communion beyond pardon:' Christiane belonging to independ,ent If Roman Catholic leadere are the moat African churches ia cloee to that of t'~use� reaiatant to change, surprieingly they belonging to Weatern Romatx Catholic have been the first to introduce African and Protestant churchea combined. ***** education in the form of initiation Independent churchea norv exis't in 33 ceremoniea in the Church. African countriee and comm;and thR At a recent regional conference of the aupport of more than seve~n-miZlion World Union of Catholic Women, held in adherents from 270 different tribes in,all Lusaka and attended by delegatea fmm parte of Africa south of the aahara.'~h,eee East, Central and Southern Africa, Zam- churchea have become .iivorced from bia formed gr9ups of women to conduct European missionary chu~chea for one ***** initiation of Roman Catholic girls reaeon: strong African tzadition~b and when they reach puberty. cultural differencea. Formation of sez guidance groupa ihe strength of the European colonial came at the euggestion of Archbishop impact in the Church, and the strength of Emmanuel Milingo of Luseka. He pas- the missionary impact, make Africana sionately urged Catholic women to make feel still dominated by forei~ners, deapite an impact on world legielation againet political independence. COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ON~,Y INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS RENE DUMONT ON 'S7'RANGULATION OF AFRICA' London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Auq 81 pp 42-44 [Interview with Rene Diunont by Michel Leclercq, place and tir.?e unspecified] [Text] Michel Leclercq: Do, you conaider these people wanted their indepen- that the black continent ia near to dence; too bad for them if they cataetrophe7 Ia Africa really being couldn't manage itl ~ strangled? ~ - R.D. Leaving aside responsibility and Rene Dumont: Abeolutely. It was not I international solidarity, after indepen- who invented this metaphor of a strang- dence very cloae ties remained and new led Africa but Edward Sokoine, Prime ones, even ~loser, were forged between Minieter of Tanzania. When we left him Europe, notably France, and Africa. in Auguat 1979, after the long investiqa� Today we would find it difficult to do tion which we helped to carry out in his without all the things supplied by iitese country, this was his only concluaion: countri~s, be it oil from Algeria, Libya, "And, now they are going to strangle Nigeria, or, Gabon; iron-ore from Mauritania (which ie more economic to us..." Africa ie already in a catastrophic exploit than that of a small mine in condition. Each year its cereal imports Lorraine), bauxite from Guinea, cobalt riae, from two million tons in 1960 to 12 frum Zaire and 7,ambia, uranium from million in 1978, and from now on it will Niger and the Central African Republic, have no currency left with which to pay and so on. for them. Most ofthe countriea oftropical Africa also sunplies us with agricul- Africa, with one or two exceptions, are up tural product9: ~undnuts from Senegal, to their ears in debt, without any hope of coffee, cocea, bananas and palm oil from ever being able to repay what they owe. Cameroon and especially from Ivory Yet despite these importe, malnutrition Coaet, cotton from Chad and the Central increasingly ravages people people in the African Republic. And I am not even slums and above all in the rural areas. talking about the African labour force, Twenty years after independence theae which does us much service. France countries are in reality bankrupt, could not ignore Africa without suffering T reduced to a state of permanent beggary. from a considerable reduction in its The xnoat obvioue case is of course 7,aire. standard of living. There ia only one reaaon why this country has not as yet gone bankrupt: the M.L. Why do you lay emphasis on the international banks have already lent it great responaibility that the West so much money that they go on doing so in bears for the state of African bank- the hope of one day salvaging their ruptcy? investments. Bui now long can this last? R.D. We are responsible by virtue oF a M.L. How dces the Africana' state of kind of cultural ,~.om::.a~ion, because the bankruptcy concern us? There are African rulers are our pupils. Ifthey have � surely some people who will think: succeeded in ruining Africa (and we shall 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY see to what extent they have done so) it is in the universal virtues of the Western because they knew how to do only wkst model of development. What created the we taught them. These people came to wealth of Europe and America could not Eumpe and America to study. They w~t~i tnake that of Africa. to our universities, our institutes. Those, like me, who were trying to At the same time they were attracted plead for a little more realism, not to say by our own model of development and we common sense, were rejected as retrog- did everything to encourage them in this. rade old fuddyduddies and enemies of ' We pushed these countries into a pattern progresa. They had to go fast, very fast, _ of development which was the exact cut all corners. No-one wanted to face the replica of our own and which, as a result, fact that it might not work. Today it is the was not truly adapted to their real, African masses who are suffering from situation. tt~e dramatic consequences ofthis failure. It was logical that they should at the same time adopt the pattern of a M.L. What about the administrative consumer seciety like ours. But because errors on the part of African heads of . they had not previously achieved the state? Even monumental errors, if we level of production which such a pattern are to believe your book! demanda, they could do nothing but go bankrupt. R..D. That is quite right. Zambia, for All this was foreseeable. But no-one example, is perhaps on the brink of was prepared to listen to the few cries of collapse. There, they arrested a cones- alarm that were raiaed at the time. As pondent because he said that the situa- long as oil continued to be cheap, African tion is very bad. In the old days, the economies were more or less able to bringer of bad news was killed. sustain themselves and create .the illu- After 16 years of independence, this sion of doing so. But oil became ex .en- country has succeeded in becoming the sive. From then on catastrophe wae champion of bad management - if we inevitable. exempt Zaire, which really holds the Tanzania exports cotton, coffee, sisal, record. It became independent in 1964, tea, tobacco, etc. Well! 6096 of these three yeara after Tanzania. exports will be necessary this year to pay It was then relatively rich owing to for oil imports. Yet this country only copper, of which it is one of the chief ~ consumes 750,000 tons of oil, which ia a producers in the world. The V ietnam war ridiculously low amount. puahed the copper up iii price, but with . the millions of dollars profit Zambia chose to follow the Western example and M.L. Do you think the African heads build big administrative buildings and of state could have acted in any other even a sumptuous university hospital, w,ay? comparable to that of London or Paris. These were huge investments but they R.D. Firstly they could have listened to were totally non-productive. The worst of those who tried to warn them 18 years it is that today they are not capable even ago against the mirage of developing of maintaining the buildings: the cost is along Western lines. In March 1980, the too high. President of Senegal, Leopold Sear Sen- Two magnificent brick factories, - ghor, admitted to me eigh***** years ago entirely automatic, were in operation for "I did not take you seriously. But we only three weeks. Only after building . were wrong not to follow your advice." them did the Zambians discover that Today I have an invitation from the transporting bricks up to 600 kilometres Senegalese Prime Minister to his country on bad roads - if there are any! - costs as soon as possible to see what can be them many times more than the bricks done. But in my opinion, this invitation themselves. Hand-made bricks can be has come much too late. It is always the produced on the spot. same story: you only listen to Casandra In Guinea-Biseau the rulers were when Troy ia on fire. advised to centralize the husking of rice The bad advisers were not necessarily by building a big factory near the capital. dishonest or malevolent. But they were They had forgotten that the country fundamentally ignorant of African lacked roade and therefore it was imposs- realities, and they also had a blind faith ible to supply the factory! The money 8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFIC[AL USE GNLY should have been spent on a series of local R,�D. This confirma my theais: the mai~ centres. cause of the African catastrophe ia to be sought not in political ideologies or M.L. What part has modern educa- economic options, but quite simply in the tion played in the African disaster7 false idea of development which our examgle and advice inculcated in these R,D. This brings us to a fundamental countries and from which they have ~;suse of all the mistakes. Take the never been able to exLricate themaelves: Zambian system of education. Eefore the town and industry led to a contempt _ independence, most schools were run by of the village and agriculture which the missions. They did not have very should be the two fundamental bases. much money and t~.e pupils helped in the running of the establishment. Often they M.L. One thing strikes me: in a even helped to build them, cutting the country's development, it ia illusory wood, sawing it up to make furniture, to want to run before you can walk. desks, chairs, doors, and windows, shap- g�D, Obviously! What is the uae of ing and baking the bricka, etc. building a super-sophisticated, auta But in the few other schoole for whites, ~ted factory if no-one there really *****ren did not have to do manual work knowa how to make it function; if becauae later on they would go on to �,henever there's a breakdown, you have secondary and higher studies. to stop everything ~vhile waiting for With inde~endence the white schoola became the model for all of them: From techniciana to come from Europe or then on, there was no question of sc~:ool ~e~ca to repair it and for the spare *****ren working with their hands. After Pa~a to amve? seven yeara in primary school, they have 'I'hia is even more true of agriculture. acquired a literary knowledge which will What is the use of tractors and modern only prepare them for secondary school agl'icultural machines in these regions which will take in only 20% of them. But which are ill-provided with petrol, lack- tlie can do reciaely nothin with their ing in good roads, and without qualified ten fingers. p g mechanica to supervise maintenance? Moreover, they have acquired a deep '~e machines will soon become the contempt for everything that concerns wrecks that we saw almoat everywhere in the village, agriculture, and even man- g~BBering numbers. ual work. They dream only about doing ~~n the peasants do not even know secondary studies, going to towri to be about animal traction, the use of the cart, - students, and who knows? being sent by even some sometimes the use of the the Govemment to Cambridge or Har- simple wheelbarrow, isn't it there that V8~ one ahould start? Instead of that, they . Result? Out of 900,000 ***** boys and dream about a tractor that will work (or girle who left primary school after 11 will not work) a few days a year, while the yeara, about 50,000 atayed in their arduous transport will alwaya be done by villages, wherese about 350,000 man- women. aged to find work in town. All the others, 'I'he cart, which needs to be drawn by about 550,000, are in town too but oxen trained for this purpose, marka a unemployed. fundamental step toward for all agricul- Otherwise, if they can't manage to live tural aocieties. But it is almost unknown off casual work - such as shoe-cleaning in Zembia and Tan2ania. and odd jobs- they become delinquents- Moreover, it is not enough to provide a for, they, too, muat eat. The rulera refuse village with with one so that the people to link unemployment with crime, con- can start using it! It has to become a tending themselves with moraliaing. standard feature of life, one which is not But Zambia is only one country. always easy to obtain. But then again, = why change your cuatoms when women M.L. Indeed! The same mietakee can are there? be found in all these countries, what- The women work, but not the oxen. ever their colonial past and whatever M.L. Part of the soi~�tion to Africa's system of government they have adopted capitalist or socialist, one problems would be to give power to has not fared better than the other. the women. But why so much inertia among the men? 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL~' APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450058-9 hY1k Uh'F'll'IAL l1tiM: l1N1.1' B.D. You have to put it down to oftheday forthe elite in power. It ie not in colonialiam, partly at least, In the past the interesta of the rulers to have some A&ican peasants were really hard self-sufficient villages. What they want workers, a fact which was underlined by are goods to export because it is the only ~ the explorers. Besides the people were way for them to get the cunency which then well-fed except in times of droughS will allow them to buy not only industrial and other kinde of natural disasters. equ'ipment but, above all, consumer Today these people are seriously gooda, cars or other things, which they under-nourished. We hear them com- believe indispensable to their status. plain: they always feel tired. It would be There are the taxes which the govern- astonishing were it otherwise. meat gets on all exchang~es, exports, as well as imports. A self-sufficient.village M.L. One can't help thinldng about dces not bring any taxes in. That is why peoptes who were able to extricate we have examples, in Zambia and other themselves. The Chinese are no countries,ofvillageswhichhaveliterally longer starving today! ' been.suffceated by the central administ- B.D. Exactly! But Africans are not ration. Chinese with a secular tradition of hard, 'The people were happy, had enough to well-organiserl work. A peasant from the eat thanks to the produce from their Tanzanian plain, for example, is not uaed fields. But they were not producing - to working 320 days a year, 10 hours a enough for export. day! The peasant woman may do more, bluotas for cotton or groundnuts were but many peasants are content with 100 ~Posed on them, regardless of the real - to 12~ days, 6 to 10 hours a day. potential of this land, and today they are . starving like the rest. M.L. But in that case there is no M.L. Suppose that you were given full solution! powera in one of these African coun- R.D. There is only one solution. the one I tries, where would you start? have been on and on about for 20 years. R.D. I would start by giving the peasants What should be done is exactly the back their freedom so that they can opposite of what fashionable economists organize themselves. I would free them pretend. from administrative constraint and They say: a developing country must arbitrary quotas. I would leave them free first centre itself on exports so that it can to grow what they wish. Of course, get the hard currency it needs to feed and technicians have to be sent to them - I equip itself. But I say: the priority for don't scorn modern techniques - but to these countries is to produce their own help them, not to repluce them; and to food and reduce their imports. allow them to organize themselves in Each village, or at least each province, their own interests. should be able to produce its own staple We would not supply them with food. Isn't this the moet elementary tractors but with very simple tools, hoes _ common sense? and axes, wheelbarrows and carts which But this cominon sense is not the order are atill almoat totully lacking~ COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited ~ CSOP 4700/469 10 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS ARMING OF CONTINENT EXAMINED London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 81 pp 16-20 _ [Article by Nana Humasi] [Text] AFlRICA'S SECUR.ITY and the state ot the OAU Liberation Committee, which its military capability are increasingly co-ordinates funding of liberation opera- becoming focal points for African organ- tiona and acts se the continent's military isations and governments. The Freetown mentor. summit of tf.e Economic Community of Considering that Somalia, at the bot- Weat African States (ECOWAS) in May tom of the list of the big African arms adopted protocols for mutual asaistance buyers, has an annual military budget of in the defence of the Community. The about $95-million, the �26-million to be Organisation of African Unity (OAU) at set aside by Nigeria and Algeria almost its conference in Nairobi in June, voted to mocks the concept of setting up an increase aid money to liberation move- all-African war machine. For that force - ments, and to further study the call to to guarantee ~ffectiveness as a establish a continental army. But more peacekeeper, to patrol Africa's 30,00~ significantly, perhapa, Nigeria and miles of coastlins and to bring down Algeria recently agreed to set aside apartheid, the cash, armaments and �26-million from oil profits towards the manpower demands on African states formation of a continental military force. would be mind-boggling. The idea was born primarily out of the Africa is actively observed by satellite, two countries' unease about the presence and by foreign navies on all four fronts - of Libyan troops in Chad, and Africa's the Atlantic and Indian oceans, the heavy dependence on foreign and United Mediterranean, the Cape of Good Hope. Nations personnel to keep the peace in In the Atlantic, British frigates from the zones of conflict. Azores and US and French naval patrols Some quarters welcome the concept as crias-croas the length and breadth of the a blueprint for the march on Pretoria, a ocean, though they are moet active in the demand initially made by former Ugan- North Atlantic. dan despot, President Idi Amin in 1976. The Cape of Good Hope remaina a ~everal leaders treated the call as strategic ttade route for the West and stemming from one of Amin's syphillitic Japan. While thsre are no guarantees whims. But former Presidents Kwame over the Suez Canal aa a shipping lane for Nkrumah and Modibo Keita were treated the West, South Africa hae played with almost equal derision when, in "keeper of the castle" with a amall but 1963, at the founding of the OAU, they fairly sophisticated navy, much of which campaigned for the establishment of an ie equipped with Britieh, German, African High Command. American and Dutch hardware. The continent is cordoned off by army and ~~dw~~~~g navy bases, the most important of which _ are in the Aao~eg, *~c:occo, Senegal, the Nigeria and Algeria have essentially Ivory Coaet, Gabon, Namibia, South usurped responsibilities traditional to Africa, Mayotte, Mombaeea, Somalia, 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Djibouti, Ethiopia, Reunion, Egypt and tion of the emergent CairaKhartoum the far-flung Indian Ocean island of axie, with Egypt and Sudan struggling to Diego Garcia, where the US has spent woo Ethiopia from the Soviet umbrella, �300-million on a nuclear base. appears to take the wind out of Elliot's Such military "quarantine" threatene notion. Again, ~hester Crocker, US Africa's aecurity, eapecially when the Aeeietant Secretay of State, justifiea the _ rnntinent hae in the last 20 years become �1,072-million� military aid earmarked a centre for Big Power sparring. � for the auie along the Nile River and the ftift. Valley south to Burundi and Tan- zania, when he affirmed that hia gov- , .~0~"~ pO~IIt ernment's Indian Ocean policy regarded _ While testing each other's durability, East A&ica and the Hom, including such the US and Rusaia have fought on all states as Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia sides of the conflict in the Horn of Africa, aathe United Statea' aecond major area of have given and withdrawn sid and concentration next to the Gulf. personnel according to the dictates of Crocker emphasiaed such a strategy their respective strategic and economic ~+as abolutely vital in view of the interests. ~'Vith the Super Powere, South "aggreaeive opportunism of Soviet enter- Africa remaina a aore point. prise in the region and the significant American interest in Africa grew growth of the American import depen- - rapidly under the preaidenciea ofRichard dence on fuel and non-minerals produced Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter to in Africa". The situation, which a New challenge what they claimed was a Soviet Atriaart analyet (3ee July 1981) deacribed threat to its interests on the continent ae the "Sword of Democlea", has integral and in the Middle East. This growth was connections with the state of the Cold also intended to contain the apread of War, and presenta all the ingredienta for communiem. a super-power confrontation in Africa. According to the Americane, the The Indian Ocean teems with Ruesian, alliance of Mozambique, Angola and Britieh, Auetralian, French and Ameri- Zimbabwe - seen within the Henry can warshipa. They all claim the right to Kiseinger-Zbigniew Bnezinaki "domino" "protect" the commercial traffic to and principle - forma an intolerable "com- from the Eaet. The US has 17 combat munist corridor" which the Rsagan shipa in the area, two sircraf~ carriers Government has since aworn to diaman- (the larger of which is the 83,000-ton ' tle. Kitty Hawk), six destroyers, six frigates, - The 1973 OPEC-generated economic three cruisers, plus 15 support ships. The problems of the Weat, the lightning Soviet Union stacka against that 16 awitch of poet-9hah Iran from the U3 support shipa, and five combat vessela camp, the Ruasian presence in Afghanie- headed by a cruiser. tan, and the repetitive teneiona in the The coup mounted by Bob Dennard, a Middle Eaet generally, have largely French mercenary, against the socialist overehadowed the gravity of 3oviet-US government of President Ali Soilih in the contentions in Africa. Comoros in 1978, end the Israeli raid on Entebbe earlier in the decade point to an ineecure continent. France's former Pres- jnstification ident Giscard d'Eataing, apart from "They are not looking at Africa," atationing 40,000 French troops in obaerved Mejor Robert Elliot of the Africa, had quickly adopted the role of London-based International Inetitute of policeman, deploying 1,~00 French and Strategic Studies (IISS). "They are laok- Belgian paratroopera when unrest ing at each other. Those African bases erupted in Zaire's Shsba province in won't be hit unlese there ie war elaewhere - 1978. France holde the recorrl for cruah- between the US and Ruasia. American inB popular rebellione in its former misailes in the Indian Ocean are more territoriea. Infiltration by US, French interested in hitting Sverdlovek, ttae and other Weetern intelligence organisa- heart of Soviet military induatry, than tiona hae fuelled military upheavals in they are in subduing the east coaet of manY PartB of A&ica. Nigeria and Africa." Algeria eay that this demanda an African _ However, the US-financed conaolida- deterrent. 12 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY p1'O~'llel~B~C nuclear device belonging to South A&ica. Ite 10,000-strong sirforce ia undoubtedly "In the context of etrategy and tactics, the best trained in Africa. the African army would present~a wide Outeide South ~:frica, Africa's biggest range of prohabilities and difficultiea;' . military spenders are Egypt and Libya. said Brigadier H.S. Lehman, the South AfricanDefence Force attache in London. Egypt, an arma manufacturer, purchased "Guerrilla warfare alone cannot take 600 Maverick air to aurface miaeilee, 350 over an entire country. At some point you Sidewinder sir-to-air miasiles, among will have to fight in the open. That's othera totalling $1050-million outaide ita where the age-old concepts of war annual $2,170-million defence expendi- weighed against the principlea of ita ture. Libya, with 4,000 men in ita navy actual execution will be problematic for and sir force is spending equal amounts - an African force:' while experitnenting with rceket laun- Africa's regular armies total about chers and intercontinental range mis- 1.5-million men and women (see attached siles with the help of OTRAG, the chart) with Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and German firm pushed out of Zaire two Morocco boasting the largest units. The y~~ collective African navy ie 36,620-strong, 'j'he Egyptian defence adviser in Lon- while its air force stands at 69,950, with don, Brigadier Farouk Abou-Ellez, said Egypt, Nigeria, Morceco, Lybia and the manpower may be there but Africa Algeria having the largeat forces. must not forget that South Africa is not However, troop movement across alone. "The situation will be similar to Africa's 11-million sq.milea of terrain the Israeli-Arab conflict," he said. "The poses overwhelming atrategic obetacles: United States would aupport South 22 per cent is almost impaseable rain Africa ageinst a larger African force - a forest, 35 per cent is desert, with only force that could not depend on the Soviet - three Southern African countries with Union. The Russiana give only defensive inter-etate railways of any significance, eupport. $pare parts and other supplies and virtually no inter-connecting road would be a mejor problem. We Egyptiana ~~e~ are apeaking from experience." Says M~jor Elliot of the IISS: "Conven- tional warfare against South Africa (iOI~=OAta~OIL would demand 1,000 tons of food, equip- ment and spare parts per day per man. The experiment at peacekeeping failed The standard preponderance ratio of the in Chad. Nigeria and Congo sent troopa to attacking force should be three to every NDjamena. It was ahortlived. Congo one of the enemy. You are talking about withdrew ita forces after soldiera of 600,000 men in any one attack, and up to Preaident Goukouni Oueddei badly six-million men as long as the way may mauled a Congoleae company. Nigeria last." was left to risk direct confrontation with South Africa hae 86,5Q0 regular troope 4ueddei and Libyan forces. Benin and and claims it can mobiliae up to 404,500 Guinea-Conakry were part of the agree- men within a few daye. Its annual ment but did not keep their promise. Now defence budget is currently $2.56-billion. Nigeria is claiming compensatioa for Its forces have combat experience from transporting the troops to and keeping offensives into several Frontline States. them in Chad. Ita weaponry, apart fmm what it man- "I don't see an all-Africa force ufacturea, includea 250 Centurion and 40 materialising for a long time, " argued Sherman tanke, 209 combat aircraft in Jacquea de Lestapis, editor of the reput- addition to the lateat Mirage fightera, ableAFrioa Dej'ence magazine in Paris. "It bomber squadrone and flying gun-ahips. will be lumbered with language and The navy is equipped with three political problema to the point of making Daphne claas aubmarines,l0 Britiah Ton it not feasible. NATO has similiar mineaweepers and other combat shipe. problems, despite the long hietory of South Africa haa nuclear capacity. Thia military sophistication of the countries was coafirmed by the Africa Department which make it up." of the US Council on Security which An all-Africa military command would reported thet the "double-flash" recorded therefore, probably reflect the infrastruc- in 1979 was indeed from an exploded tural probleme of politics & ideology, the - 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLX APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450058-9 FoR oFF~crA~. ~,,SF: ~rv~.v primary setback of the OAU. Eleven of anything else� the 19 countries of any military aignifi- A retired African general who led UN cance are inclined toward the West and forcea in the Congo during the Katanga receive heavy aubsidies from the West, crieis in 1961, told New African that and .even provide military baees for � Africa lacked the commitment, will and Western pawers. The remainder look to intelligence network to talk about an ftuseia and have enjoyed 3oviet backing aseault on South Africa. "What is the with hardware and advisers, while the political orientation of those contributors rest of Africa claims non-alignment. to this force?" he questioned. "Is South Observes Major Elliot: "Apart from the Africa a priority for Egypt, or Morocco? political aspect, a command operation Will the Frontline States be ready to risk would achieve little if it did not under- devastating raids by the South Africans? stand a common language. A way round W.e must not forget that South Africa the Ianguage barrier of a.multi-ethnic believes in the pre-emptive strike like force would be to group contingents in Israel ia uaing againet the Araba. Black linguistic detachments with epecitic Africa dcesn't stand a chance in a reeponeibilities. Zulus take the east, conventional war." Yorubas the south, and so on. But at the The general is, however, convinced top, strategiats and commanders would that well-trained guerrilla brigades are need to be polylingual and well-trained the answer. "Our best chance is to - soldiers, or the force would never move mobilise the guerrilla factions to make from point A to point B:' life impossi6ie for the whites in 3outh ' A former buahFghter in Ethiopia's Africa:' On the peacekeeping c.epect of a Ogaden region believea African govern- mixed force, the general says:. "I aee ments would put stability at risk if they problems worse than we had in the Congo _ committed their regular forces to a where some 25 nationalitiea made up the continental command. "An African force UN force. An e~icient intelligence net- today would be cannon�fodder," he aays. work would be eeeential. You cannot "And if we plan it over the next 20 years, fight an enemy unlese you know a great South Africa wi11 gear itself for the deal about him. Some African leaders ' ~,~t don't even begin to know how devastat- The immediate answer, the ex-bush ing the South African military might can . fighter said, was protracted guerilla be. Israel is a good example of what an action led by the African National A~'ican foree can face againat South Congreas (ANC) of South Africa, and the ~'1~ " 5outh West African People's Organisa- Coneenaus is that guerri118 warfare tion (SWAPO) of Namibia. The black will prove the most effective type of pocketa of Lesotho, Swaziland and Bots- military action againet South Africa. wana, would probably be overrun by the One educated estimate ia that in the guerrilla forcea, but this would need to be context of guerrilla warfare Africa has a done without alienating the allegiance of mobilieation potential of more than the citizens of thoee countriea. 25-million men and women. Well-trained He adde:. "South Africa's main guerrilla forces have a eound record in headache in a war with Africa will be the liberating former colonies in A&ica. 22-million black faces in ita own back- Aa the ex-bushfight~r says: "This yard. The Engliah and the Afrikaners method ofwarfare ia more in line with the will stick together but they won't trust relatively low-spending and unaophisti- any blacks. That will be a serioue cated state of combat groups in Africa. organieational problem for them." Guerrillasdotheirjobwiththeminimum amount of equipment. The fight will be ~ long. But that's the way to get at South NO C~$aC@ Africa and apartheid:' Egypt's Brigadier Ellez empheaiaed that the first signs of seriousnesa within A ie~0a the OAU in the establishment of an African force would be the founding of a How would South Africa react to the military committee. "Let them bring ultimatemelitarypreasure-forinatance, Africa's military minda in coneultation. a combination of esealating guenilla A military committee is vital before tlon~al Wa=�and nternal anarchy? onven- 14 FOR OFFICI~?L USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 ; FOR OFFICtAL USE ONLY Counhr Army: Air Foror Nouy: R~urva: Total Arnu S~. fin millionU A~~~ 80,OOp 7,000 {,000 10,000 111AaG 3T06m E`ypt 320.000 27,000 20,000 616,000 B8'1A00 i2170m Liby~ 460.000 4.000 4A00 - 468~000 i~48m Maaao � 106,000 7,000 4,000 30,000 148,000 1876m 9udea 86.000 1.300 1,600 3bA00 109,000 i442.8m 'lluuo~ 24,000 2.000 2.600 2,600 31,100 i114m 30,000 1.500 " 1.000 - 32.b00 Ethiop~ 226A~ 3.000 16,000 20,000 289,000 3986m 14,T00 1,3b0 1200 4,000 21,460 ilSbm Km+y 12,000 - 2.100 860 1.900 18.560 i188m Mo~ambiQue Ttb~ 800 700 - 24,300 3177m Nigeris 130,000 8,000 B,000 - 148,000 i1700m gomalfa 60,000 1,000 650 29,b00 91,060 366m South Afriu 71A00 � 10,300 4,760 10,000 98,060 i2680m Tsnzsnis 50.000 1,000 860 38,400 882b0 f303m y~r 18,500 1A00 1,000 3b,000 66,600 i60.5m Zambia ' 12,800 1,300 - 1,200 16,600 ~987.9m Zimbabwr: 12.000 1,600 - 42.500 58,000 i444n 2.899,260 10,961m II98:Th~ Military Balana 1880~1981 Consensus among atrategic expert,~ Under the stress of war and impending seeme to be that the Afrikaner, together defeat, if that ever comes, they would say with a section of the Englieh-speaking 'It is uur country; we built it' - and they whites - thoae who had not already fled will blow everything to dust and die with the country - would defend the heartland it:' with their lives, having conceded the Henry Kissinger, in justifying fringes of the Republic. America's need to pull out of Vietnam, Major Elliot of the IISS goPs a step wrote: "A conventional war that doea not further. He says: "Ifthe asesulting forces win, loees; a guerrilla war that does not , of this imaginary army, as well as urbsn lose, wins:' guerrilla saboteurs, put on extreme The right course for Africa, bent as pressure, the whites would rather dea- it is on smashing apartheid, miqht troy what they have than give it up. well be comtained in this statement~ COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 ' 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INTER-AE'RICAN AFFAIRS RURAL AREAS SEEN AS KEY TO GREATER AFFLUENCE London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 81 p 48 [Column "In Perspective" by Jimoh Omo-Fadaka] [Text] A re-definition of Africa's development strategy is called for if the continent is to lift itself from the quagmire of poverty. Strangely, most plans devised by African states over the years for their uplift have - skirted around the crucial issue of the plight of rural areas. Now, fresh African minds are beginning to focus on the options which could lead ~ to a re-vitalised Africa THE CAUSE OF poverty in African agricultural productivity can be brought ; countries is not backwardnesa or lack of to the level at which a sustained policy of ! resources, but the decay of the rural industrialisation ia posaible. Therefore structure. Most of the plans drawn up in the basis of development should be rural many of the countries over the years have not urban. ' up till now by-passed the rural areas. The villagera will need technology to ; Between 80-90 per cent of the popula- achieve their development goals. Such ~ tiona of African countries live and work technology should be cheap and available i, in the rural areas where most of the to everyone in the village or community, ' poverty is concentrated, although in rather than to a privileged few. It should ' urban areas deprivation is now also be labour-intensive to reverse the trend increasing fast. towarda increasing unemployment and Economic and social conditions in rural-urban migration. Finally, such , inany countries are unatable and various alternative self-help should be capable of ii attempts to superimpoee a highly being reproduced locally, thereby developed, capital-inteneive induatrial encouraging indigenous industries. syetem from top to bottom upon such ~is emphasis on rural development conditiona has worsened the problem of dces not mean that local village activities poverty. Economic and aceial develop- should prevail in all cases. Certain ment in the rural areaa can be fruitful ~rvices may need to be provided at the only on the basie of a 6ottom to top national, urban, atate, provincial or development which takea account of d~~M~ levels. Transportation networks indigenous conditions and realitiea. need national co-ordination. Copper African co~ntries have the potential to mines, smeltera, petmleum refineries, produce enough foad to feed their expand- ~'~'ill require maseive inputa of energy' and ing populationa and excesa for export. labour. They cannot be supplied by a few But unfortunately they are not doing so; Wind generators. rather the reverae aeeme to be the caee. Equally, however, one dces not need a The importance of the agricultural base B~Bawatt power plant to meet the energy should be recogniaed. It ia only then that demanda of farma and villages. In fact, 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050058-9 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY supplying energy needa in such a way quote Mr A.A. M. van Agt, Prime inevitably creates and resulta in feelings Minister of the Netherlands: "The real of alienation, dependence and helpless- choice is between sticking to our present ness when one has no understanding or system, which is largely guided and - control over one's meana of survival. manipulated for the benefit of the rich The tendency to make everything huge countries and opting. for a system and heavy and on a large-scale should be directed towards finding solutions to the avoided as far as posaible. Emphasis problems of equitable division of income should, as far as poaeible and practicable, and prosperity, of scarcity of natural be on lightness of construction. Urban resources and the damage to the envi- and rural development should be organ- ronment". ised specifically to suit conditions in At the national level the present cities, towns, villages and rural com- system in many African countries is munities. largely guided and manipulated for the - In the urban centrea there may be need benefit of the rich minority. The existing for large-scale capital-intensive indus- international economic stiwEtures are try. ~ut within the urban based industry not only exploitative but als~ designed to itself, there should be a parallel serve the powerful rich minorities, both development of small-scale labour- at the national and international levels. ~ intensive industry. This economic What ia required then at both levels is an development should be "dualiatic" with, equitable distribution of the world's on the one hand, a modern large-scale resources. capital intenaive sector and on the other, NEIO calls for a"basically new a traditional labour-intensive sector. philoaophy". In this respect the Swediah This is called "walking on two legs". economist, Gunner Addler-Karlsson . The sim is to build a diversified and advocates an "inverted utilitarianiam" balanced economy, a balance between which would mean organising" our induetry and agriculture, between light societies in such a way as to minimise and heavy industry, and the development suffering". He maintains that "increas- within each region of a country the ing the material standard of the already energy basis on which industry must af~'luent does not have any value so long rest. as suffering still is widespread African and other Third World coun- Nobody should increase his affluence tries have called for the implementation unless everybody has got his essentials." of the United Nations Declaration on the If this view is accepted as the basi.s of the - Establishment of a New International MEO, it will "make fewer demands on Economic Order lNIE01, to replace the the material resources of the globe, but present international socio-economic more on our moral resources."� relations which they rsgard as unjust. To COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 6 FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY . INTER-AFRICAN AFFAIRS EEC POLICY REVIEW TERMED THREAT TO SUGAR GROWERS London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 81 pp 45-46 [Article by Steve Schifferes] , [Text ] THE LIKELIHOOD of ine~jor changes to mounting a majar sxport drive which hae . the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) dierupted the warld market. Pricea have of the European Economic Communi~y falleneharplysinc~theirNovemberpeak has long-term implications for the viabil- and now stand ~at their lowest level aince ity of augar production in the Third January 1980. World, especially the A***** countries ~with The EEC's s~gar policy squeezea Thirrl guaranteed access to the EEC mar}cet World producers in several ways. First, through the sugar protocol of the Loine the EEC, which is not a signatory of the Comveation. ~ International Sugar Agreement, is able ~ to use aubai~ised sales to depresa the ' ~~g~ market and thus put at risk the expen- sive investmenta in expanding produc- The EEC is engaged in a major review tion that several African countries, such of its policy and funding, pushed on by as Somalia, have recently begun. Sec- Britain, which succesafully negotiated a ondly, the EEC price support system for reduction of �1,400-million in ita net its beet sugar has eroded the profitability contribution to the EEC. But mejor of cane sugar refining by Tate & Lyle in changes are inevitable when Britain's the United Kingdom, to which the vast "temporary" reduction runs out, as West bulk of A***** sugar, imported under the Germany and the Benelwc countries are Lome C.onvention, ia sent. On 22 April no longer prepared to be the major EEC the Liverpool refinery closed, leaving just contributora on their own. Ae over 70 per one major Tate & Lyle facility at Port ~ cent of the EEC budget ia made up of Greenock, Scotland. ~ subaidiea to agricultural production the , preesure is on for ehangea to the CAP R@~nCe vyy=dgA system. The budget squeeze wil? come at a time The method by which the EEC is likely when EEC beet sugar production has in the future to reduce the financial - been greatly expanded through the use of burden of agricultural support is the subsidy mechaniem. In April the EEC unlikely to be of much benefit to Third agreed to eztend its support of beet sugar World producers. The first taste of this production for another five yeara, and came thie year when the EEC imposed a agreed country-wide quotes very similar two per cent levy on EEC beet sugar to to thoae exieting previously. The result help meet the cost of diapoaing of the has been that EEC beet sugar production surplus, but refused to pay the same reached record levela as production pricea to A***** sugarproducers, who were exceeded consumption and stocks of aleo hit by increasing ahipping freight ! 1.65-million tons were built up. In order rates (EEC intervention price only covers to reduce this politically embaraseing delivered price). Thus A***** producers are "sugar mountain" the EEC has been being forced to accept lower EEC pricea to 18 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 _ b'OR UM Fll'IAL U~~: UN l.1 remain competitive. praducers like Swaziland are expanding, The other long-term coneequence of the the older, more estab lished producera are EEC's reluctance to accumulate agricul- facing problems and low yielda due to soil tural surpluses will be continual prea- exhaustion and antiquated equipment. sure downwarda on the merket even Almoat a decade .after taking over the - without subsidies; due to overcapacity. sugar plantations from a Tate & Lyle The EEC exported more sugar (3.9- subaidiary, Jamaica under the new right million tonsl than was produced in the wing Seaga govemment ia now consider- whole of Africa in 1980, and the EEC ie ing taking them back at leset in a the second largest sugar exporter in the management consultancy role. Tate & world after Cuba. ~ Lyle derives ita m~jor profita from Yet sugar still remains crucial to the trading operations, leaving the more economy of a number of African and risk-ridden production alone (except for Caribbean countries. Mauritius, which management productsl. exporta nearly all its sugar, dependa on The future of Third World producers ia its access to the European market therefore likely to lie in reducing their through Lome; roughly one-third to dependence on exporta to the West. There one-half of ita GNP ie made up of augar are two promising areas, in theory. There - production, se are two-thirda of ita export is the prospect of increasing South-South earninga. Swaziland earns half of ita trade, for sugar conawnption per capita is foreign exchange through eugar which it rising in the South at the same tirne as it has been expanding rapidly; the EEC and has become etagnant in the West. Coun- US are m~jor rr.arketa. Likewise Jamaica triea like Nigeria are major importers - remains dependent on its status as an from the EEC. Second to the diversifica- A***** producer for a guaranteed market, tion of markets is the diveraification of and the sugar sector is by far the largest producta, and already Malawi has fol- employer of labour. lowed the example of Brazil in producing Jamaica's situation also highlighta ethanol fuel from molaeaes� another production problem: while new COPYRIGHT: 1981 IC Magazines Limited CSO: 4700/469 ~ 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400050058-9 FOR UFMICl:11. tiSF: 4)N1.1' INTER-AFRI~AN AFFAIRS BRIEFS HARD DECISIONS FACE AFRICANS--African delegates attending the July 1-24 meeting of the 54-member United Nations Econotnic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in Geneva have received a touqh evaluation of curren~ conditions which calls for some hard deci- sions. The report, part of a series of reqional economic surveys covering Asia, Africa, West Asia and Europe, projects a period of "negative growth" in per capita income among low-income African nations and says the sub-continent is set to remain the least industrialised region of the world for the foreseeable future. The im- mediate problem, says the report, is food. F~nergency projects to promote food production and trade~between African nations must be set in motion. "The aim ; should be to reduce Africa's food imports by 50 per cent by 1985". A regional food i plan, it is estitt?ated, would require investments totalling 27-billion dollars. Some of this money would be used to try to overcome poor performance of the aqri- cultural sector, the small size of the domestic market, lack of capital, and short- ages of imported raw materials and skilled manpower in an effort to spur industrial I growth, particularly in non-oil-exporting countries. However, there are.many more obstacles to industrial growth. The report says these include inefficient manage- ment, ineffective national industrial development, a weak infrastructure, and the protectionist policies of Western industrialised countries. The report points to specific programmes in some countries which seem to be assistinq the struggle for food self-sufficiency. Consolidation of land tenure laws and credit facilities for small farm~rs in Lesotho and Zambia are noted. Nigeria's efforts to use modern technology in the fishing industry are considered exemplary. Yet the report does not see~these moves as ca~,able of raising the dismal conditions of life for those - in the 20 least developed African nations, whose per capita income should remain below 100 dollars for the next decade. In these areas the report predicts "possi- ble economic and social collapse". [Text] [London NEW AE'RICAN in English No 167, Aug S1 p 47] ~ ABIDJAN-NIGER RAILWAY EXPANSION--The Abidjan-Niger Railway Administration (RAN), which operates a 1,154-kilometer-long rail system between the Ivorian and Upper Voltan capitals, Abidjan and Ouagadougou, is goin~ to invest some 10 billion CFA francs in the purchase of rolling stock. Work is currently underway to adapt the railroad to the continued growth of traffic. 'rhere are plans to double the track along 324 kilometers between Abid~an and Bouake. The improvements will make it possible to increase the current frequency of 36 trains a day up to 68 trains. In addition, in a few years, 400,OOQ cubic meters of oil products wi11 be hauled as far as the Bouake depot, now under construction. A program to purchase rolling stock costing 10 bil~.ion CFA francs is planned for the coming years. French enter- prises should participate in the program. It should also be noted that RAN traffic has been partially interrupted in recent days in Upper Volta because of repair work on the track, work made necessary by the heavy rainfall in the Comoe regions. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 7 Aug 81 p 2051] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ANGOLA BRIEFS UNITA COMMUNIQUE--The National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), which opposes the regime in power in Luanda, states in a communique sent to Paris that it continues to control the city of Mavinga, taken from government forces on 28 May. Mavinga is located in Cuando-Cubango Province, on the border of Namibia and Zambia. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1867, 21 Aug 81 p 2178] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 PROTEST AGAINST MPLA-P***** STATEMENT--The Portuguese Government has just protested to - Angolan authorities about statements contained in a communique published jointly by the MPLA and the Portuguese Communist Party, stating that the "government of the Democratic Alliance (Portuguese center right) is practicing a policy of subservience to the imperialism of the United States vis-a-vis the People's Republic of Angola." - [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1867, 21 Aug 81 p 2178] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 GENERAL TRANSPORT INVESTMENTS--According to a report from the transport committee to the Angolan People`s Assembly, some 4,257,400,000 kwanzas is to be invested in the field of transportation in 1981. The investments will include: Road trans- port: Angola will buy 1,150 trucks, 550 buses, 4,300 light cars and 1,400 special- ized vehicles, along with spare parts, all for some 1.6 billion kwanzas. Rail transport: A study for the construction of railroads between Luanda and Viana is planned. The Luanda-Zenga section will be straightened. In addition, tfie layout of the north-south transversal railroad will be defined. Also planned is the build- ing and assembly of railroad equipment, all costing some 720 million kwanzas. Maritime transport: Plans include the purchase of 5 mixed freighters with an over- all tonnage of some 80,000 tons, In addition, the Luanda port will be asphalted and construction of the Cabinda port begun. Total. expenditures will be around - 1,128,000,000 kwanzas. Air transport: Freight transport increased 546 percent over 1~79 and passenger transport 55.8 percent. Repair of the Benguela, Uige, Lubango, Chitato and Menongue runways is planned. Later, a new international air- port for the capital is planned. Quantitative and qualitative improvement of domestic and international service must be relentlessly pursued. The financial effort will amount to 1,367,000,000 kwanzas. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1867, 21 Aug 81 p 2178] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OF~ICIAL USE ONLY OIL PRODUCTION FIGURFS--The annual report of Texaco Petroleos de Angola for the 1980 fiscal year indicates that the company's share of crude oil production in the area on land being worked totaled 2,374,374 barrels, or 2.2 percent more than in 1979. A total ~f 1,340,764 barrels were sold to the Luanda refinery and 751,310 barrels were exported. The company participated in the boring of six development wells. Beginning in June 1980, the General Geophysics Company completed seismic surveys, 342 kilometers of which were done in the concession area, withi.n the framework of the research and development program. After completion of the first phase of the Quinfuquena terminal, which included a ma.ritime loading~tower and a 20-inch loading pipe, a contract was signed with the Industrial Enterprise Union. to build the second phase, which includes two 400,000-barrel tanks and a pumping station costing $25.5 million. Completion is planned for the middle of next year.. [Text] Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1867, 21 Aug 81 p 2179] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 CSO: 4719/344 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC DETAILS OF EMERGENCY PLAN FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French 31 Jul 81 pp 1.976-1977 [Report of UN Conference on Least Advanced Countries {Paris, 1-14 September 1981)] [Text] When this country was still called Ubangi-Shari, it was mainly known abroad by stamp collectors and geographers. The latter actually had a very significant example of geology, "the Ubangi threshold" separating the three major basins in the heart of Africa: the Congo River basin, the Chadian depression and the Bahr al-Ghazal River valley in the east. As part of former AEF [French Equatorial Africa], - Ubangi-Shari struggled along, far removed from major economic trends and great changes. In proclaiming the Central African Republic [CAR] in 1958, Barthelemy Boganda, who soon disappeared, tried to make this region the nucleus of a"Latin Africa," but he failed and, with a heavy heart, he had to resl.gn himself to withdrawing into his own sector, that former Ugangi who, without belonging to any group, had to deal with serious problems: few inhabitants, meager resources and above all, an outlet to the sea that was 1,800 km away. Ubangi-Shari became the Central African Republic, isolated at its doorstep, and returned to a certain anonymity. More than 15 years later, when pine posts were shipped by air from the southwestern part of France to this country of forests so that oriflammes could be hung from them, it became obvious that something was not quite right in the way that govern- ment affairs were being handled. The spotlight of current events was then focused oa this wedge-shaped piece of land which, because of its strategic location and its uranium reserves, was an important pawn on the political chessboard. Everyone . knows what happened following the final convulsions of a dying regime. Disturbing Economic Picture . Beginning in 1976-77, it can be said that the trade situation started to 3eteriorate seriously. Its decline was rapid. The figures also speak for themselves: from 1967 to 1975, average annual growth was 4.7 percent; then it slumped and became negative. Thus for the entire 1967-80 period, the average annual growth rate was only 2.6 percent, i.e., barely higher than the rate of population growth (2.5 percent). To determine the extent of the decline, only the agricultural production for~those ~inal years need be considered. Production of manioc, th~ principal crop, dropped from 280,000 tons to 256,000 tons, while corn production dropped from 42,000 tons to 33,000 tons; thus it became necessary to import and to keep on importing foodstuffs. ?3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAI. IiSH: ()N1.1' It was not a bright picture for export crops either: cc;tton: 41,040 tons in 1977, - 27,000 tons in 1980; tobacco: 2,400 tons in 1977, 1,800 tons in 1980. On the other - hand, coffee production remained stable. ~ The exploitation of forests, an impo.rtant part of the country's economy, also de- clined considerably. In the case of rough timber, for example: 1974: 331,000 m3, exports 131,000 m3; 1979: 250,000 m3, exports 125,000 m3. Finally, diamond production, which represented roughly 30 percent of export revenues, dropped from 538,000 carats in 1965 to 284,000 carats in 1978. But even more serious was the disorder which prevailed for years in the administra- tion of transportation systems. Rural roads and highways were not maintained. The Central African Agency for River Transportation (ACCF), the public agency administer- ing river routes, was managed chaotically, resulting in a more than 50-percent drop in trade. All of this meant an almost strangled economy and very harsh living conditions, especially in isolated villages. The change in the GDP [Gross Domestic Product] ' is a good indication of that situation: 1977: 115.2 billion CFA francs; 1980: ' 102 billion CFA francs (at constant prices for 1977); or a decline of 12 percent. Per inhabitant, this same GDP declined 18 percent, dropping from 53,160 CFA francs in 1977 to 43,700 CFA francs in 1980. Disastrous Financial Situation ~ The financial situation was only a corollary of the economic situation. It was ~ a classical pattern: the machinery of trade slowed down and financing ground to a halt, but operating expenses continued to pile up, thus it was not long before ~ payments were in arrears The state def icit rose from 1.3 billion CFA francs in 1971 to 9.9 billion in 1980. This decline was mainly due to the rapid increase in the number of public employees (16,000 in 1974 and 26,800 in 1980). The budget's structural imbalance (due to spending) grew considerably worse as a result, since government operating expenses in 1980 accounted for 84.9 percent of all expenditures! The balance of payments in turn obviously deteriorated, its various components them- selves showing negative figures: balance of trade, -19 billion CFA francs in 1980; balance of services for the same year, -21.9 billion. Thus the current balance of payments finally dropped from -9.5 billion in 1977 to -43.4 billion in 1980. Public transfers, d~~e to a massive increase in foreign aid, which were approximately 10 bi113.on CFA francs in 1976-77, then greatly increased: 26.2 billion in 1980. - Thus the net balance of payments, which had been positive for so long, dropped to - -2.5 billion in 1977 and to -5.1 billion CFA francs in 1980. Subsequent deficits were offset by special financ?ng. It should be noted that public foreign indebted- ness was 52 billion CFA francs at the end of 1978 and that domestic indebtedness was 10 billion, totaling practically half of the GNP [Gross National Product~. Under these conditions, it is understandable that the public treasury could no longex provide for government expenditures and amortization of the public debt. 24 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Recovery Plan The situation was serious enough for the UN General Assembly to issue an appeal in DPCember to governments and specialized institutions "to contribute bilaterally and multilaterally to the reconstruction, recovery and development of the CAR." The most urgent matters took priority, thus this emergency plan was spread over 2 years and can be considered the guiding force, if not the driving force, for the entire decade. It provides for 45 billion CFA francs in investments. Investments made last year toCaled only 9 billion CFA francs, whereas 17 billion had been schaduled. It should be noted that 4.5 billion francs have been earniarked for infra- structures. Recent events have shown, if there was any need for it, that prolonged interruptions of shipping routes, already long and uncertain, quickly result in bringing the country to a standstill. For example, when it was learned that gas and oil once had to be imported by air to prevent the suspension of economic opera- tions, the authorities were determined to make sure that such a situation would not occur again. Priority was thus given to two projects, which are also underway. The whole struc- ture of the 2-year recovery plan and the 10-year plan depend on them. They are: the reorganization of the Central African Agency for River Transportation (ACCF), which administers Central African river routes, and first of all, the former Bangui- Brazzaville "federal route"; restoration of the Bossembele-Bouar-Garoua-Boulai (Cameroonian border) highway. To a good extent, the first project will determine the CAR's future. If it fails, everything may well be thrown into disorder again. Actually, the transequatorial route is now the only one that can really be used for foreign trade. It mu~` there- fore be reliable and profitable. A new company has been established for this purpose, SOCATRAF (Central African Company for River Transportation), which will be in charge of everything concerned with transportation by water. It is significant to note that 49 percent of its capital is held by a private company, with the remaining stock owned by the Central African Government. This arrangement has also been used for reorganizing other public corporations. SOCATRAF's directors are not faced wi_th a bright picture. Trade declined by more than one-half between 1970 and 1979: From 267,000 tons to 114,000 tons. The length of the journey on the Bangui-Brazzaville route has increased from 220 to 330 hours. SOCATRAF's working capital is in the red, it is in arrears with all its payments, it is overstaffed (650 full-time employees) and its equipment needs to be modernized or replaced. In short, it will have a lot to do to correct the situation. A reorganization pr.ogram has been started and investments of 4.3 billion CFA francs ~ are scheduled ovex a 2-year period. The aew company's goal is to quickly bring about regular supplies. The Brazzaville-Pointe-Noire railroad link, on which the CAR depends, obviously remains a factor, but that is another problem. Ti,~~ ~econd project is the restoration of the Bossembele-Bouar-Garoua-Boulai highway (45_z lanj, which will make it possible to improve communications, now quite precarious, with Cameroon and Douala. The work has already started and uT~ll last until 1983. The Bangui-Bossembele highway is also being asphalted at the same time; the route through Cameroon will then be a reality when this work is completed. 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450058-9 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY - Thus if these two projects are successfully complet~d, it will be a great step forward. The reliability of the two main routes of communication abroad, to Pointe-Noire ~ and Douala, will restore the confidence of investors and it is the most natural - thing in the world for them to start "bidding" again for Bangui Of course, the recovery plan and the 10-year plan include a whole series of other projects covering the various sectors of the economy. To complete the road portion, first of all, we should mention that there are 18 other projects in addition to the 2 major projects mentioned, including the construction of an all-weather road, in the distant future, to the "uranium" of Bakouma. In the case of roads, all pro- jects taken together will represent an investment of 119 billion CFA francs. But their completion would be to no avail if maintenance services are not totally re- organized. This is absolutely necessary. The Bangui-M'Poko airport will be modernized to permit Boeing 747's to land there; ~he Berberati airport will also be improved. Total cost of these two projects: 2.7 billion CFA francs. Rural development, together with agriculture, livestock breeding and forestry, repre- sent 51 projects totaling an investment of 108 billion CFA francs. Cottonseed pro- duction should reach 76,000 tons by 1985. . Development in the social sector (education, training, health care) also constitutes an important aspect of the plan: 51 billion CFA francs allocated. Overall, the 1981-90 plan is scheduled to provide an investment of more than 400 billion CFA francs. If such a stun is provided from "abroad," that will only be the first step, so to speak. Such f inancing actually still needs to have preferen- tial conditions, unless it is desirable to reduce its beneficial effects, i.e.: recurrent project expenses to be asstuned by financial backers, loans made without interest or at very low interest rates, renewed moratoria or abolishment for foreign debts, etc. Like other countries, the Central African Republic hopes that such an arrangement is possible. In its case, at least, this procedure would be largely justified. COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981. 11915 CSO: 4719/299 ~ 26 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC BRIEFS PROMOTIONS OF OFFICERS--On 30 July, President Dacko promoted a number of officers ~ to higher ranks, while the Central African National Army was invested with all powers with respect to the maintenance of order following the 14 July bombing in Bangui. Gen Andre Kolingba, chief of staff of the Central African Armed Forces, was promoted to the rank of army general, the highest grade possible in the National Army. P romoted to the rank of brigade general were Col Alphonse Mbaikoua, deputy chief of the general staff of the Central Armed Forces, Col Abel Nado (Operational Intervention Regiment), Col Sylvestre Yangongo (Support Regiment) and Col Paul Bangui (Air Force). These promotions were reportedly based on the "loyalism" demonstrated by the Armed Forces during the events following the 14 July attack. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ~T MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1865, 7 Aug 81 p 2057] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 CSO: 47 19/287 , 27 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAI. USF. ONI.Y CHAD RESTORATION OF CONFIDENCE MUST PRECEDE ECONOMIC RECOV~RY Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MIDITERRANEENS in French 31 Jul 81 pp 1975-1976 [Repozt of UN Conference on Least Advanced Countries (Paris, 1-14 September 1981)] [TextJ The violent contrast between the arid lands of the Sahara and the Shari River's hinnid savannahs seems to have inf luenced, as though by osmosis, this unfortunate country's political life, which has been marked by bloody conflicts for several years. Those who always have ready a good oral or written explanation say that the Arab "lords" of the North, formerly powerful but now only poor, nomadic shephe~ds, have angrily watched the Christian farmers of the South, already rich from their cotton, acquire control of the government as an added bonus. This is held to be the cause - of the tragedy. It is very possible. But external influences must also be con- sidered, in particular one which many people, thinking too much of Libya,~have for- gotten: the war in the Sudan, which lasted 17 years, from 1955 to 1972. ~ Moreover, who could claim to draw a clear picture of the Chadian imbroglio, whose confusion has increased from one month to the next? For the time being, however, a relative calm has apparently returned to this country, "which has more of every- = thing than the others, except wealth".... Limited Possibilities Located in the heart of the African continent, everything is a problem for Chad. As in 1962, it is enough for Lake Chad to overflow its banks as a result of recurrent rainfall and blockage of the road from Idigeria to interrupt, for several weeks, the shipment of goods routed, at the time, thraugh Lagos and Port Harcourt. The ~ameroonian route has since taken over and there is less rainfall but the fact remains that Chad is dependent on its neighbors for its trade. With Doua.la 1,500 km away and Pointe-Noire, the "unattainable," 3,000 lan away, what a handicap! Especially since resources for a population of 4.500 million inhabitants are far from adequate. Everything has to be imported, except foodstuffs, which barely cover the country's needs, presently no longer the case. Except for cotton gins and two breweries, there are only small crafts-type companies (leather, textiles, etc.). These are the most recent official figures, published for the 1976-77 period: millet and sorghum, 540,000 tons; peaauts, 95,000 tons; manioc, 50,000 tons; fish, 110,000 28 FOIt OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 FOR OFF`ICIAL USF. ONLY tons, 40,000 tons of which were marketed; livestock: 3.500 million head of cattle. As for cotton, which in 1974 represented more than 70 percent of export revenues, the 1976-77 harvest was 144,000 tons (cottonseed); production dropped to 83,000 tans for the 1980-81 season. There has also been much talk of uranium and other rich ores discovered in the area of the famous Aozou Strip, in the extreme north, surrounded entirely by desert. Exploitation of that wealth will continue to be a dream for a long time, inasmuch as investments would be enormous because of the distances involved and the environment. So when two scourges such as drought and war rained down on this very fragile economy, - the country could not withstand them. Thus according to IMF estimates, the GDP [Gross Domestic Product], in current value, rose from 162.2 billion CFA francs in 1976 to 179.8 billion in 1977 and to 208.6 billion in 1978. This is equivalent to an annual growth rate of barely 2.5 percent, which is less than population growth. The latest status of the balance of payments is not known, although it had already started to decline in 1977 with -1.1 billion CFA francs as opposed to +5.6 billion 1 year earlier. Imports for the same year amounted to $150 million as opposed to $40 million for exports, which indicates the extent of the deficit. At the time, Chad had prepared a 4-year development plan for 1978-81, which would have provided for investments of approximately 226 billion CFA francs, including 70 billion for the secondary sector (30 billion for manufacturing industry). As , might be suspected, the least effort was never made to implement this plan. Rebuilding the Ruins In February 1979, the bloody conf lict turned into an actual civil war, which sub- sided in November but resimmed with more intensity in March 1980. Ndjamena was at the center of the fighting. Calm was not restored until 9 months later. In view of these events, the UN General Assembly proclaimed a kind of state of emer- gency and Chad has become the focus of concern of various UN agencies. Missions have been sent to the country. In cooperation with the Chadian Government, they are evaluating i.mmediate needs and arrangements for aid may be made immediately. In short, an emergency plan has.been set up for the various sectors of the economy. Infrastructure: It seemed essential to quickly increase the capacity of the Kousseri ferry, the only link between Chad and the outside world. The following measures have been taken: 2 unused ferries, 1 weighing 30 tons and the other 60 tons, will be restored to operating condition, which will require 2 months' work; completing the construction of a 60-ton ferry, which began before the f ighting. The cost of these two operations is approximately $600,000. The umbilical cord represented by this route across the Shari River to Cameroon will thus be reinforced and will make possible a considerable increase in trade. The Ndjamena airport has suffered extensive damage. The main installations are no longer operable and only the runways have been spared. But without a control tower, without a radio beacon and without essential installations, there is no ques- + tion of its being used for the time being, inasmuch as ICAO [International Civil 29 FOR OFF[C[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY Aviation Organization] standards constitute a decisive obstacle, of course In any case, 6 months' work, including the installation of a prefabricated control tower, will be required to make the airport operational. Cost: $5 million. Food, Agriculture: Ndjamena and certain regions urgently need grain. An initi~l contribution of 12,000 tons is being provided. In the present situation, logistical problems of shipping, distribution and storage are difficult to solve. Grain eleva- tors must be restored to operating condition and vehicles must be provided. The country is totally without means of transportation. Seeds are absolutely necessary for the new harvest. They will come from Cameroon and Nigeria: 360 tons of millet, 70 tons of sorghum, 40 tons of rice and 100 tons of peanuts. There are many boreholes and equipped wells which are no longer operating in rural areas. These water-supply installations must therefore quickly be put back into operation to prevent a disaster for cattle and a mass exodus of the rural population to Ndjamena (which is also without water). Health Services: Almost all health services and medical installations are no longer operating. They were inadequate before the conflict and are now almost all beyond use. The central hospital has not been seriousl.y damaged, but all the equipment has disappeared and there is a shortage of drugs. Serious cases are treated in Kousseri, Cameroon, at the refugee camp's very well-equipped hospital. WHO has allocated funds of nearly $1 million for the most urgent needs and in particular for the supply of drugs. ~ Other steps are being taken: restoration of telecommunications, schools, etc., which would be too tedious to mention. They are among the priorities which have been established by the minister of reconstruction. More generally, the Chadian Government is currently trying to restore confidence in tr?e country. It will soon be necessary for proper restoration of public services. In fact, many people have fled, at least 300,000, including a tiumber of civil ser- vants. And their return will begin as soon as order and safety are really assured. It ts under these circumstances that Chad will initially be able to get back on its feet. Later, when fears have disappeared and rivalries have subsided, Chadian leaders will be able to think about really getting the economy back on the right track. Whether from Abeche or Lere, Toubou or Sara, Chadians profoundly want peace and the term "recovery" has never been as meaningful in this country, in which the North ancl South must f ind the points of anchorage for reestablishing the Chadian community. COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981. ' i1915 CS~: 4%i9/299 3U FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHAD BRIEFS UNDP FINANCING AGREEMENT--A financing agreement to provide new equipment for the Ndjamena airport was signed by the UNt~P (UN Development Program) representative ~ in Chad, Placktor, and Chadian Minister of Publi.c Works Facho Balaam, at the end of July in the capital. Total cost of the operation is 707 m~llion CFA francs. Placktor told AFP that the agreement is for the purpose of "helping Chad to restore its means of communication and exchange with the international community." The UNDP representative in Chad also announced that the Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will soon provide e~uipment and send six experts to undertake repairs on the control . tower at the Ndjamena International Airport, which was heavily damaged by fighting. Finally, Placktor said that the WFP (World Food Program) would supply food totaling $2.4 million. According to Placktor, the UN High Cotnmission on Refugees is cur- rently providing Chad with assistance costing some $6.8 million. [Text] [Paris , MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1865, 7 Aug 81 p 2057] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981J 11,464 CSO: 4719/287 ; 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 FOR OFFiC1AL USE ONLY CONGO BRIEFS LUMBER EXHIBITION--From 13 to 17 October, the Congolese Wood Office will hold the first African Wood Exhibition in Loubomo and Brazzaville, as part of the fourth forestry and wood week. The exhibition, in which all international lumbermen will participate, will include the aspects of tree planting, reforestation, lumbering, industrialization and the important problem of marketing different varieties, especially the so-called "secondar_y" or "promotional" types. Within this context, special attention will be paid to the presentation of secondary woods in various forms, ranging from logs to furniture and including sawn lumber, plywood, and so on. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1865, 7 Aug 81 p 2059] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 PRC AGREEMENT--An agreement on cultural, scientific and technical cooperation was signed between China and the People's Republic of the Congo on 30 July in Brazza- ville. [Text] [Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1865; 7 Aug 81 p 2059] [COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981] 11,464 CSO: 4719/287 32 FOR OFFIC[AL USE 4NLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 M'UR Uh'H'll:lAl. US~: UNLY GABON PROGRESS REPORT ON TRANSGABONESE RAILROAD Paris MARCHES TROPICAUX ET MEDITERRANEENS in French No 1867, 21 Aug 81 p 2171 [Text] An activity report from the Ministry of Transport and Merchant Marine for the August 1980-August 1981 period emphasizes that the Transgabonese Railroad Office (OCTRA) is operating under satisfactory conditions. There has been an in- crease in the activity.of rail transport, resulting in regular growth in the number of passengers carried: 68,000 in 1980 leaving from Libreville or N'Djole, and 36,000 for the first half of 1981. Freight traffic has stabilized at 300,000 tons a year. There will be a def inite increase in 1982 and especially 1983 when the railroad penetrates the forest area called the "railroad attraction zone." However, it is in the field of maj or undertakings that the essential activity re- sides. These mainly involved the N'D~ole-Franceville route, while studies actively continued for the Booue-Bongobadouma-Moanda section. The first section of the Transgabonese, from Libreville to N'Djole, was opened three and a half years ago. The section is 185 kilometers long and cost 64 bil- lion CFA francs. The second phase began with a special project: the opening in 1975 of the Junkville tunnel (kilometer market 230), 286 meters long. Since Janu- ary 1979, work has continued with the laying of track beyond N'Djole as far as the Lebe station (kilometer marker 192), in order to make it possible to ship out lumber from forestry permits located south of the Ogooue on the left bank. ' Between N'Djole and Booue, major earthwork continued. The total now amounts to 28 million cubic meters, in cuts and fills, including 3 million in rocky excavated material. Some 10 kilometers of inetal pipe has been laid and 13 engineering works completed, including the bridge over the Ogooue downstream from Booue, 476 meters long. The laying of the track should resume in October 1981 and reach Booue at the end of 1982. The cost of these operations is 65 billion CFA francs. On the Booue-Franceville section, everything will be done so that work will be - spread out from January 1983 to December 1986, the date on which the railroad will finally reach Franceville, which requires the construction of 19 engineering pro- jects and the laying of 310 kilometers of track. It is also important to recall that 30 kilometers of platform have been completed at Franceville. On this section, there remains the assembly and the installation of the metal flooring for the Ogooue VI bridge, 430 meters long, and construction of the bridge over the Lebonbi (over 100 meters). 33 FOR OFFICIAI. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 ruK uNMiI:IAL U~~: UNLY In order to comg~ete the program of works entrusted to it, the enterprise responsi- ble for the projects had to bring in large amounts of heavy equipment, including 250 eartt~overs and some 2,550 employees, including 1,457 Gabonese, or a total of 2,200 Africans. COPYRIGHT: Rene Moreux et Cie Paris 1981. 11,464 CSO: 4719/344 34 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050058-9 ~uk ohFie~~L us~ oNL~~ GUINEA-BISSAU PRESENT LEADERSHIP'S REPORTEDLY SUSPECT MOTIVES QUESTIONED Paris AFRIQUE-ASIE in French No 246, 17-30 Aug 81 pp 14-15 [Article by Augusta Conchiglia: "An Appo3ntment on 14 November''] [Excerpts] On 14 November, the anniversary of the coug d`etat, the extraordinary congress of the PAIGC will be held in Bissau, slated to undertake the "revitaliza- tion" of the party. The choice of the date is quite significant. The overthrow of President Luis Cabral and the ascent to power of a council of the revolution headed by Joao Bernardo Vieira (Nino) bore an undeniable anti-party connotation be- cause of the methods used and the positions assumed. The absence of any real al- ternatives in the coup makers' declarations and the lack of serenity in. the criti- cism addressed to those who were violently overthrown, as well as a mixture of racist and anti-Cape Verdian statements that detracted from the real ob3ectives and the successes achieved by unity, had perplexed a11 thoae who had closely followed the PAIGC`s history and struggle. Has there been an evolution since those days? If one is to refer to the resolutions that came out of the party's national com- mittee meeting at the end of May, ambiguity still prevails--at least at the theore- tical level--as to the respective roles that must be played, today as well as in . the near future, by the party and council of the revolution. The latter had immediately dissolved all the institutions set up by the PAIGC during the first 7 years in power, but had simulta~neously renamed the coup d'etat "a readjustment movement." In a transitioned phase, the party "aclmowledges that the. council of the revolution has a leading role in society as the supreme organ based on the principles of the PAIGC." There has ~ust been an integration at the summit between these two institutions: the GNG [National Council of Guinea] has co-opted two members of the government, both very active in support of the coup d'etat, and 5 members of the council of the revolution--already admitted into the ranks of the CNC--are entering its permanent committee. Well ahead of the preparations for the congress, the leading organisms of the party have thus been slightly remodeled ac- cording to the viewpoints of the council of the revolution. This is a questionable practice when engaging in the democratization of the structures and the redefini- tion of political action. Actually, the council of the revolution, which, at any rate, has not planned to abdicate in favor of the party, whose "instrument" it def:nes ~tself could not pre- vent this clarif ication from falling due. A number of government off icials and - 35 , FOR OFFI~'[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 ~'~~12 ~~?~FT~~t ~ ~~F ~ PAIGC militants had agreed to cooperate with the new govemment, hoping to completely re-establish its primacy over all other institutions of the state. This was also eyed favorably by the people who, either directly or indirectly, had supported the PAIGC since the war of liberation. Narrow Nationalism Wasn't "Nino." the son of the revolution and one of the very f irst f ighters of the PAIGC? In the eyes of the people, too, the difficulties encountered in daily life because of the country's serious economic situation, could be imputed, finally, to the overthrown leaders. The anti-Cape Verdian campaign, for its part, opened the - way for an argument that could be well received b; the bulk of the people: narrow nationalism. Following the speech made, a few days after the coup d'etat, by the traitor Rafael Barbosa, it became clear that this aspect would largely determine the actions of the new leaders. While an unconditional overture was made to those counter-revolutionary movements opposed to the PAIGC, such as the FLING [Front for the Struggle for Guinea-Bissau Independence], the UPANG [expansion unlazown], etc., - these were organizing committees in support of the council of the revolution abroad and were full of praise for the authors of the coup d'etat--maintain ing that they even participated in it--stressing, in particular, the common defense of the "authen- ~ tic sons of Guinea." Since the "historic 14 November," app~als to reconciliation have abounded; former opponents are returning to Bissau, puppet organizat ions are dispatching delega- tions galore to negotiate their official adherence. Returning to Dakar, Vincent Co, president of the committee in support of the coup d'etat in Dakar--and another champion of the struggle against the PAIGC--declared that "the time has come for all the sons of Guinea to return home." Indeed the Cime has come, because government posts have already been discreetly entrusted to former opponents. Victor Pan, the new attorney general of the Republic, is well lmown in the anti-PAIGC circles of the Portuguese capital. With the exception of their nationality, what do these former militants of the reaction--supported, once upon a time, by France and the United States through Tuni- sia and Zaire--have in common with the serious PAIGC militants? This question cannot be evaded. On what and on ~;~ich pro3ects has it been possible to reach an agreement since, on the one hand, the Bissau officials vigorously proclaim themselves the heirs of Amilcar Cabral and on the other, all these opposi- tionists have not abandoned their ob~ectives, which run totally counter to those of the PAIGC? Nevertheless, the most ambitious among them are conscious of these differences. Kankoila Mendy Francois, president of the FLING committee that met in Dakar on 30 March, categorica~ly denied the imminent dissolution of the front an- nounced a few days before. For the moment, this measure has been delayed, because no similarity of viewpoints has been agreed to as yet. And, as Mendy Francois noted, "the FLING is in good health." This prudence can be explained by the fact that outside the council of the revolution, government officials and former PAIGC leaders enjoying international prestige are 36 FOR OFFICIA.L USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL US~ ONLY tenaciously defending the political plan developed by the PAIGC and initiated during recent years. The 30 March arrest of Rafael Barbosa on the initiative of Minister of Justice Fidelis de Almada after more than 4 months of freedom during which he had received - taousing and a pension, as well as the vigilance of Minister of Planning and Economic Coordination Vasco Cabral against sliscreet and subtle attempts to jmpose contracta or "solutions" of neo-colonial inspiration, must have contributed toward alerting the puppet groups. These are spreading the belief that they the support of privileged members of the council of the revolution, but are awaitjn.g a formal invitation to join the govern- ment. They are even basing their hopes on economic catastrophe: the drought has aggravated the shortage of food, and the cruel lack of foreign exchange leaves the country at the tender mercies of international assistance, which is often late in coming. They can then appear as saviors, and impose their conditions, as well as, it goes without saying, their international alliances. Present Vagueness The counter-revolutionary groups and their allies are seemingly only half-satisf ied with the changes that have taken place in Bissau. If, on the one hand, the objective of destroying the unification project between Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau with the concomitant weakening of both has been attained, and if the PAIGC's prestige ac- quired in the course of a courageous and exemplary struggle for liberation has been tarnished, a number of obstacles, even fragile ones, are raised to prevent the sell- ing out of the country. The hoped-for changes in international policy have not been initiated, for whatever reasons. In the present mood of vagueness due to the lack of deci~iveness on the part of those who got hold of the government by force, the initiative of some leaders can still be a determining factor in the leaders of the state. President "Nino" himself contributed to this as well. Together with narrowly nation- alistic positions and all sorts of accusations hurled against the former leaders-- which totally conceal the responsibility of the entire team then in power--he in- sisted that some leaders about whom he already knew that they wrould f ight against the total recovery of the country, should, nevertheless, become part of.the govern- ment. In this context, it is difficult to forecast the meaning of the upcoming extraordinary congress. Even if one of the CNG's self-assigned tasks for the next few months is to conduct an enlightenement campaign on the reasons that brought about the coup d'etat, one ' can rightfully hope that the party leaders will realize the threat now weighing on the country. Heavily decimated, the leadership of the remnants of the party seem quite heterogeneous. Among historical cadre, one must indeed exclude those who perished during the coup, those who were f ired while abroad--many members of the ~eneral staff were in fact in Cape Verde at the time--those who have left the country and, f inally, those who are st ill jailed. - It is diff icult to predict whether one can hope that the congress will put a stop to the low-key penetration by counter-revolutionaries of leadership positions and 37 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400050058-9 FOR OFFICIAL U5E UNLY admit the legitjmacy of the establishment of the PAICV by the Cape Verdians by accepting to renew relations between Che two fraternal countries. Fjn.ally, it is difficult to lmow whether the congress will set a definite schedule for the re- establishment of a democratic leadership of the state under the party's control-- evet~ if this party.is a different one--and whether it will draw an anti-imperialist and coherent economic development policy. Perhaps the resolutions of the congress will satisfy the buLk of these questions; however, this will require such a ratio of forces as to guarantee their application. At any rate, contradictions abound at the present time. The statements made last February by the members of the council of the revolution about the imminent release of farmer President Luis Cabral and of other jailed leaders have been subsequently refuted by the vice president of the council of the revolution and minister of foreigri affairs, Victor Saude Maxia, who did not deem it necessary to provide an explanation. What can one think of those--in the majority for now--who prefer Spinola's agents retrieved by an already moribund Portuguese colonialism when they were on the verge of being stricken from the pages of history, to those leaders who so generously contributed to national independence? What can one think of this temporary ma~ority, too, when they tor*****ed the meeting arranged between Aristides Pereira and Joao Bernardo Vieira in Maputo for last March? Another such meeting is st ill viewed, and it seems that "Nino" has evidenced a sincere desire to participate in it to provide a concrete impulse toward the normalization of relations between the two countries. However, the same rumbling opposition to such a meeting is evidenced by certain members and collaborators of the council of the revolution, as well as to the release of Cabral and other leaders, who have been detained for over 9 months; indeed, all of this does not bode we~l for the future. COPYRIGHT: 1981 Af rique-Asie CSO: 4718/354 38 ~ FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 r~+,tt ~*~b1~ kf~ 1 ~~l. t�.\.Lt KENYA PRESS FREEDOM SEEN AS SET FOR TUMBLE London NEW AFRICAN in English No 167, Aug 81 p 88 [Article by Kazungu KatanaJ [Text] THE KENYAN PRESS, once one of the must be allowed to contest the Bondo freest media institutions in Black Africa, seat. ~ is running into trouble with the The government responded harahly. In authorities - just three monLhs after the a statement, Nation newspapers were International Press Institute ended its accuaedoftryingtoassumetheroleof"an annual general asaembly in Nairobi. opposition party." The government move to crack down Warned the government: "The persis- on the Presa surprised many Kenyan tent rebellious attitude of those con- , ~ journalistswhoimmediatelyafterDaniel cerned (Nation group of newapapers) ~ arap Moi became preaident enjoyed a new cannot be viewed ae being in the interest freedom. They were remarkable days. of the State." The statement urged the For the first time, Kenyan newspapers Presa to avuid "inciting" the public over were able to reveal acandals and corrup- decisiona that are "national and collec- tion at the highest levels of the private tive." - and government sectors. The Nation management apologised. 'I'hat honeymoon is now over and the The same month, Nairobi freelance Press is facing its most crucial period in journalist Brian Tetley was arrested at many years. his home by security police officers. In an interview with the Nairobi Weekly Review after his release, Tetley said he $at'S~1 Z@spOI1~@ had spent 15 "agonising" hours in police The current troubles are largely a and Secret Service custody. result of political developments here: The reason for his arrest he said, was _ squabbles within the echelons of the coniiected with the publication of ruling KANU Party, the government allegedly seditious and libellous material doctors' strikes and the students' unrest against the government. at the University of Nairobi. Tetley told the Weekly Reuiew: "When It all erupted in April when KANU they picked me up they took practically barred former Vice-Preaident Oginga every piece of paper I had. Some were Odinga from contesting his old Bondo returned to me after my release." ~ constituency by-election, a seat vacated Late in April, Press freedom in Kenya for him by Hezekiah Ougo. wastestedagain,thistimebyMinister-of The Nation newspaper v~rote a strong Tourism Elijah Mwangale, who sug- editorial yuestioning the party's deci- gested that K~~nyan ;ournalists be sion, noting that the issue had strained "licenaed". Such licensing, Mwangale the fabric of the country's unity "not argued, would create personal accounta- merely at the seams but through the bility and responsibility. cloth.' Said the Nation'c editor-in-chief Jce In the interests of our nation's unity, Rodrigues: "Licensing is not democratic the paper continued, Oginga Odinga and would denigrate the profession of 39 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050058-9 ~r~K ~u~~rriy.~i